Dr. Ashraf Ghani

Remarks at Nazarbayev University Astana, Kazakhstan

Keypoints:

Asian Continental Economy: Asia is becoming an integrated economic space.
Silk Road Legacy: Historical trade and knowledge networks guide the future.
Roundabout vs. Cul-de-sac: Connectivity transforms regions over time.
Mental Outlooks & Policy: Mindset and policies limit regional interaction.
Terrorism as Ecology: Terrorism is a networked and adaptive system.
Modern Threats: Attacks undermine citizenship and state trust.
Regional Cooperation: Rules and collaboration reduce threats effectively.
Cluster Infrastructure: Coordinated energy, transport, and water systems.
State Building: Citizenship and equality strengthen state structures.
Dialogue of Civilizations: Tolerance and interaction counter fear.
Historical Inspiration: Abu Rayhan Biruni as symbol of knowledge and opportunity.

Good evening. You know, the best job I had was Kabul University, so I really envy Mr. Shigeo Katsu. The job you have is the job I’d like to have. But as it is, I have to speak from the perspective of the job that I have, so you will indulge me. I’ll speak for about 25 minutes, and then we can engage in some questions.

The Emergence of an Asian Continental Economy
Asia was a concept, but not in economy, and not a sociological reality of interactions. In the next twenty-five years, probably one of the most profound changes in human history is going to occur, which is the emergence of an Asian continental economy. We have only two precedents; one: the emergence of the United States in 1869 as a continental economy. In 1869, the Pacific and Atlantic railways joint in header to transform what was a geographical space into a political economic space. Second, of course, is the emergence of European Union; much more slow, much more gradual.

The Legacy of the Silk Road System

This is the greatest opportunity that we have, here in part, the past is the vision of the future. From President Xi Jinping to all of us, we are speaking back about the Silk Road. But, what was the Silk Road? First of all, it was many roads. But, second, it was a system. It was one of the most organized trading systems that the earth knew. The bills of exchange were invented at least two thousand years ago as part of the Silk Road. The word ‘check’ derives its origin from Persian. Bills of exchange united Nepal all the way to Nizhny Novgorod and across the Middle East. Three: it was an organized system of transport. Four: the nature of the commodities linked in incredibly complex trading system.

The Concept of the Roundabout vs. the Cul-de-sac

Fourth: there was a knowledge system of interactivity, acceptance, interaction. It’s in this context that the word ‘roundabout’ acquires meaning. What is a ‘roundabout’ and what is its opposite? A roundabout Toynbee observed is a place where ideas, peoples and goods flow. The contrast is with the Cul-de-sac. Cul-de-sac is a place where people, ideas and goods get to be stuck. We have echoing the term incidentally for Afghanistan because for two thousand four hundred years, Afghanistan was a roundabout, but in 19th century it became a Cul-de-sac. It became the end of the earth because two imperial systems turned it into periphery.

So, the lesson here is ‘roundabouts’ can change to ‘Cul-de-sacs’; Cul-de-sacs can change into roundabouts. One of the greatest events, of course, that has happened, and Kazakhstan is the far front of it, is dissolution of the former Soviet Union. As long as the Soviet Union existed, a lot of places including Kazakhstan and Afghanistan would turn into Cul-de-sacs. That dissolution of the former Soviet Union opened up a new set of flows, a new set of activities, a new sets of transformations. Here, the emergence of the roundabout is not product of deliberate continental transformation, but a series of events are joining to produce these roundabouts.

Mental Outlooks and Policy Constraints

As we speak every day, the change in infrastructure is making Asia more connected. Four years ago for the first time, inter-Asian trade exceeded Asia’s trade with Europe and America, and that is a true harbinger of things to come. I come back to this notion of how roundabouts are produced and how the Cul-de-sacs are? That’s the opportunity. But, what is the threat? The first threat is our mental outlooks. Look at the infrastructure. The global logistics index that the World Bank produces. Incidentally, it is good to see so many formal colleagues. There is a stamp that one cannot shake no matter how critical of it one is. So, I am grateful for the education that I acquired though my education was against the grain. The grain of the habits that the World Bank had, and had to be questioned, because that again is part of what the outlook’s been.

If you look at the word ‘logistic index’ particularly in terms of Asia, it is not the infrastructure that is the fundamental constraint. It is ‘policies’. We, all of us, have erected systems that slow things down, that prevent interactivity from taking place. Buyers that need not be there are there. So, mental outlooks really matter; they are fundamental constraint. Second is the nature of investments. We think nationally, and when we think nationally – mistakenly said rationally – which I hope it’s rationally too, it needs the regional angle.

Terrorism as an Ecological System

But the larger threat now that we are dealing with—and our immense sympathies to everybody in Paris, today in Bamako, before that in Istanbul, Beirut. But we, in Afghanistan, experience the largest threat which is the new form of terrorism. So, let me elaborate on this with some concepts and then turn back to the opportunities. First of all, while terrorism is an abomination morally, we need to recognize that it is a system sociologically. My submission is that we need to approach terrorism as an ecological system. It is becoming inhabited in ways that all ecosystems are inhabited; unless its systematic nature is recognized, we will not be able to devise ways to overcome.

What are some of these elements? First, global criminality makes this possible. The global criminal economy, what Moisés Naím called and elicit it, is $1.7 trillion a year; that network is an enabler network simultaneously of this violence that is inflected upon us. Second, it is a network. Those of us who come from traditions of states or companies understand hierarchies well, but we have a great failure understanding networks. Networks are organized on the basis of different principles than hierarchies. Networks are incredibly fast while hierarchies are slow.

The Pathology and Morphology of Modern Threats

Three, the nature of transfer of experience within these networks is extraordinary rapid. If Al-Qaeda, with all apologies to Microsoft, was Windows 2, Daesh is Windows 5, in terms of transforming itself to 6. What is striking is how fast this ecology is changing and how vicious the networks are becoming. None of these networks are national-based; by definition they do not have passports so that they’ll not respect boundaries. But our responses are constrained by boundaries and merits of rules and regulations.

Now, if the ecology has these characteristics, the next thing is to understand its pathology. Terrorism has become pathological. Entering into a theater shooting for the sake of shooting. What is the purpose of this? Theater! We are dealing with the theater of violence. The purpose is to inflict the largest damage into harm, the basic sense of belief and trust. What is under attack? The fabric of citizenship that’s so laboriously and so systematically been constructed over the last hundred years. What is the other thing under attack? The fundamental contract between the state and the citizen. The state – the modern state – is based on a contract that the individual is protected by state institutions; this is what is under attack. Third thing, if you have noticed about the recent pathology, freedom of movement is under attack.

Regional Cooperation and Rules of the Game

We are changing, we are dealing with changing morphologies. So with this kind of threat, we need to think back both the state in terms of the national space, system of interrelationship between states regionally and the global sets of relationship. The first point, of course, is that there are no two worlds. There is only one world. But our reaction at first, of course, is to construct fortresses around ourselves. Fortress Europe, fortress North American, fortress North-East Asian, etc. That type of closing in upon oneself actually allows the threat to increase not to decrease.

Second is, this morphology and ecology and pathology cannot thrive without tolerance of some states and some non-state actors providing the enabling environment. What we suffer in Afghanistan from—because we are at the forefront of these—is that when sanctuary is provided, when good and bad terrorists are differentiated, when one thinks one’s neighbor’s problem is one’s opportunity, we play a zero-sum game and reinforce these threats. Our fundamental problem in Asia, particularly South Asia, is that there are no rules governing relations between states.

The Cluster Approach to Infrastructure

Back to opportunity. Asia’s emerging continental economy is the greatest possibility for truly achieving not only the millennium development goal, but the new goals that is to end poverty within a generation. We need to change our conception of building structure as clusters of infrastructure. Related set of things because what produces a roundabout is that investment in making turning a geographical space into a place. The best way of connecting Central Asia and South Asia is Afghanistan. Turn it inside, outside, that’s the way.

The cluster approach that I am advocating is first to see ourselves as a central hub for the energy trade. When the process of realizing the first transmission lines from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan to Afghanistan to Pakistan and simultaneously from Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan to Afghanistan to Pakistan. Power generation, power sharing and electricity. Second, our pipelines. Third are railways; fourth are airports; fifth is fiber optics, and sixth is canals and dams. These all deal with changing opportunities.

State Building and the Equality of Citizens

The second issue is ‘how do we approach state building?’ not as just a process of top-down but a simultaneous process of top-down and bottom-up. What becomes critical to the process of state-building is a process of building citizenship. If people are not bound by rights and obligations, they are not going to care about state structures. The best way to overcome fear is to build the equality of citizens. Regional cooperation can fundamentally change the nature of opportunities and diminish the nature of the threats. It is in that context that we embrace a vision of hope, a vision of opportunity, but also a vision of solidarity.

Conclusion: A Dialogue of Civilizations

And lastly, the dialogue of civilizations. History matters because part of this ecology of fear is the politics of identity, and we must be able to put a counter-narrative. A narrative of civilizations working together, reinforcing each other, having the space of tolerance and interactivity.

I will conclude with one man, his name was Abu Rayhan Biruni, he lived a thousand years ago in the city of Ghazni which was then our capital. He measured the circumference of the earth within decimal points. He determined the location of every city precisely. Ghazni is now under attack, it feels itself to be a Cul-de-sac, but it hopes to, like rest of Afghanistan, be a roundabout. We live in a moment of great danger and great opportunity. With determination, with will, with understanding, and with cooperation, the danger can be turned into one of the greatest opportunities in history to create a full world that we would be happy to build.

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