The "Ecology of Terror" and Regional Cooperation | Speech at the International Contact Group on Afghanistan

Keypoints:

• Gratitude to Sacrifices: Honors Afghan people who gave their lives or were wounded, and thanks international partners for support.
• Threats and Terrorism: Terrorism is organized, well-resourced, and cooperative; regional instability strengthens it.
• Afghanistan as a Platform: Afghanistan aims to be a hub for regional trade, investment, and cooperation.
• Peace Efforts: Focus on peace between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and with internal political opposition.
• Security Strategy: Layered security with Special Forces, Army Corps, National Police, and local forces ensures resilience.
• Governance and Reform: Cabinet and provincial governance being reformed; ministries coordinated for efficiency and accountability.
• Judicial and Legal Reform: Courts and prosecutorial system modernized to reduce corruption and improve justice.
• Elections and Constitutionalism: Electoral reforms for transparency and legitimacy; rule of law and citizen rights emphasized.
• Economic Development: Harness natural resources, electricity, trade routes, and government procurement for sustainable prosperity.
• Leadership and Accountability: Cabinet oversight, 100-day plans, and close monitoring of contracts and projects for effective implementation.
• Vision for the Future: Resilient, sovereign, and cooperative Afghanistan with democracy, stability, and long-term peace.

In the name of Allah, the compassion of the merciful.

First of all, let me welcome you, ambassador, General Campbell, distinguished special Representatives, ambassadors, Minister Rabbani, minister ulumi, Deputy Minister Karzai, Ambassador cycle, all other colleagues.

Let me begin with paying tribute to the sacrifices that your sons and daughters have made in blood. They will be remembered by this nation, and I want to honor every one of them: Those who paid the ultimate sacrifice. Those who are wounded. Those who would be marked by our valleys, by our deserts, by their memories for ages to come.

I would also like to thank you all for the considerable treasure that you've spent in a time when domestic priorities have been important, even urgent; when social programs if had to be cut even in the most advanced countries, your financial commitments to us all have been important. And on behalf of it we have one citizen, particularly the women and girls of Afghanistan, I'd like to thank you. It has made a difference; it is continuing to make a difference.

Second, I'd like to thank you for sharing with us an understanding of the threats as well as the opportunities. We have a careful balance to understand the threats, but also to think about the opportunities.

When we focus on threats, we are focused on overcoming the past. When we dwell on the opportunities, we are energized by the future, by the prospects of what this beautiful land can be and what this people, who are marked by resilience against adversity, can become. This is a shared journey and we hope that as you've been with us, you will continue to do so.

I would also like to thank you for commitment and partnership. At the end of the transition, the security transition, you could have walked to it; it was not an imperative, particularly not in your domestic environments, to stay. You stayed because of principle.

So I'd like to thank every head of state and government, in particular President Obama and members of the framework leaders of the framework Nations and all troop contributing countries to the Resolute support mission and other partners who are helping us face the adversities. This commitment has enabled us to focus on building the future while dealing with the legacy of the past.

And simultaneously, I'd like to thank you—and please convey this to every head of state and government, I have said this in person to those I've met and I'd like you to convey this—that the commitment to partnership, forging of enduring Partnerships where we would shift from dealing with threats to creating opportunities, is essential and this is really vital.

Let me take this opportunity to do a quick stock taking. First, the context. We did with the agenda of transformation in a context where the rules of the game are uncertain. The old order, the old Global Order, with balances, rules, and stability of States interacting through the failure system, is not in place.

The New Order is emerging, but to be caught in a transition between changing World orders is to be both cursed and blessed.

And part of the curse I'd like to highlight: First, the Ecology of Terror is changing. We are dealing with Terror as a systematic phenomenon. It's becoming more lethal, it's becoming more organized, it's becoming more resourced. It requires from all of us a common understanding of this, because without understanding the psychology, we will not be able to fashion the strategies to overcome it—and overcome it we must.

It's a competitive ecology and it's a cooperative ecology; Daesh competes with Al-Qaeda but they both cooperate in undermining global stability and all the others.

Second, we don't have a weak link now in the state system. We have a weakening chain of states. Each time a state in the Middle East or other parts closer or far to us collapses, it increases the weakening of the entire chain and it strengthens the Ecology of Terror. Iraq or Syria are not distant from us; they provide lessons and they provide networks back and forth. The Ecology of Terror is not a respecter of boundaries or asking for passports to travel in. When these states are weakening and there is not an alternative vision, it of course affects us.

Thirdly, it was fashionable from the 1970s, some earlier, for some states to rely on non-state actors, malign non-state actors, as instruments of policy. They relied on this instrument to balance power with more powerful neighbors near or far. But adverse consequences of this policy I hope have become clear. Malign non-state actors cannot be defined between good terrorists and bad terrorists; there are no good terrorists. Terrorism is evil, pure and simple, and we here witness it every day. So if you want to ask for an opinion, ask the main children of Afghanistan.

And the fourth factor is the reinforcing networks of criminal economics and criminal politics. The global criminal economy is at least 1.7 trillion dollars a year. A lot of financing; it provides the bidding, the platform for these other types of activities and in turn the criminal economy seeks ungoverned spaces. They finance ungovernability and instability.

So in this context, what do we do to respond to this? Our vision of ourselves as Afghanistan as a platform of cooperation. First of all, now come back to this, the war that we are fighting is on behalf of everyone in this room. This is not our war alone; it's a conflict that is being fought on behalf of the future generations and on behalf of regional and global stability.

Our circles very quickly: Neighbors: India to Azerbaijan, Russia to Turkey. We are in a circle. In this neighborhood must arrive at stable rules of the game. Without stable rules of the game where states recognize each other's sovereignty and simultaneously share in cooperation to bring about a stable system of cooperation, the problems cannot be solved nationally. Some of our fundamental challenges are regional. Today, terrorists threatening China, India, Russia, Iran—all of you around the table—I cannot count because I'd be going on counting for five minutes—focus on us. So therefore we need a collective sense of purpose. This will not come overnight, but in the next 10 years we must work towards this goal.

Second, that of Islamic Circle. Islam is our guiding principle; we are 99.9 percent Muslim in this country. Our constitution is guided by these principles as well as the principles of human rights and constitutional law. The negative impact has been enormous because we've had the spillover or the displacement effect. Now we want to cooperate and our outreach has been very significant to establish a common platform against terrorism. The Declaration from Mecca some months ago from the holy city of Mecca against terror is a very, very significant statement.

And the principles that have been articulated and the analysis of the root causes or hopeful signs that we are no longer in denial. Here the key question is: who speaks for Islam? Elected leaders who have been elected by women who've braved the cutting of their fingers and voted, or a minority relying on terror? We must stand out to be counted. In that, I think Afghanistan offers, despite all our problems, amidst possibilities.

Our third circle, which you've been partnering with us with blood and pressure: the United States and Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, NATO, the Resolute Support Mission, and others providing security assistance. A very big thank you to all of you. Geographically distant, emotionally close. And General Campbell in particular, I'd like to thank you for the partnership in your leadership.

Our fifth circle is trade, investment, and aid. I want to put it in that order. First and foremost, our prosperity is going to depend on trade. Every one of our neighbors can do a lot more for us and for themselves by agreeing to equitable trade patterns and focusing on those, than billions of dollars in assistance, because trade will create sustainable prosperity.

Investment, because Afghanistan is a paradox: we're a rich country inhabited by poor people. 30–33 percent of our natural wealth is currently estimated between one and three trillion dollars, and that's just touching the surface. We do provide the headwaters and with every shift and the climate our water becomes more valuable. Our land is the connecting area of all parts of Asia; all roads to Central and South Asia, East Asia and West Asia can potentially converge on us. So investment is crucial. We are very grateful for the type of investments, the big steps that China and India have taken and I hope that others will follow because that is a critical element of the future and we are committed to creating that enabling climate.

And then aid: we are grateful for the assistance and we've partnered with you through the London conference framework, self-reliance that Minister Akimi will elaborate. The instruments for this platform are cooperation—bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral. Every problem cannot be solved through multilateral things; the fundamental building block is bilateral, because we must solve those problems bilaterally that can be solved bilaterally, those that need trilateral solutions will be approached trilaterally, and those that require multilaterally will be solved through multilateral.

Because if we put everything in the basket of multilateral relationship, we would have to wait. And the key is to be able to move the process forward. The Lapis Lazuli route that is likely to—it's very eminently becoming eminently feasible—linking Afghanistan through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan to Turkey and Georgia to Europe and of course to Russia in Ukraine is a fundamental example of this.

Afghanistan economically now is very much part of the Caspian. Seventy percent almost of our trade is likely to come through this room. Five days to Europe, maximum seven days depending on rules. We are not a landlocked country anymore; we are in the process of becoming a roundabout and bridge.

It would be an extremely important event for us and we are grateful to Iran and India for cooperating on this and of course we are looking to transformation in Karachi and the sets of relationships that would then enable us to have free movement all in multiple directions. This is crucial.

Our bonds might be weak initially but they need to become stronger as part of a coherent strategy. If they're strong, we need to maintain them and expand them and modify. Afghanistan as a platform of cooperation I think would provide an example as to how the new world, the new order that is globally possible, can be shaped by people and forces coming together rather than being disunited.

We will never permit our soil to be used against anyone of our neighbors near or far, but we expect the same from all states, and that is crucial to regional stability. Well, that platform of cooperation is about vision and being guided by a vision of the future.

Our current reality is war. The last thing I wanted to become and to address you as was a war president, but that's what I am and I'm proud to lead our armed forces. We will answer war with war; let there be no ambiguity. On a daily basis, I take stock of our security forces, of their well-being and of their orientation.

We did not seek war; the war has been imposed on us, but we will overcome this war. Let there be no ambiguity. And my message to all people surrounding us: do not bet, do not wager on collapse of that one state. We will not collapse. We have a 5,000-year history and we are going to be here another 5,000 years. The resilience of our people should not be underestimated.

All those who've invaded us in the past have misjudged the resilience of our people and they've paid the price. Those who come in peace are welcomed with huge arms, but those who seek war will have none. We have past the point of ubiquity; this war is not against foreign forces, foreign forces have left. This is a war to destabilize a democratically elected government to deny people an opportunity.

Second, we seek a twin peace: peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and peace between the Afghan government and armed political opposition. There's been an undeclared state of hostilities that our colleagues in Pakistan have acknowledged; that is the primary peace between states. I'm pleased with that nature of our discussions.

This is going to require overcoming the legacies of the past. In order to win the future, we must overcome the past, but overcoming the future requires mutual movement, reinforcing a virtuous circle because the threat of terrorism is a common threat to both Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the region. We must focus on this threat so that peace between two states can become an enduring phenomenon.

And I'm pleased that Prime Minister Sharif in his recent visit to Afghanistan declared the enemies of Afghanistan to be the enemies of Pakistan and that he would not permit Pakistani territory to be used. We need to see this translated into a program of action where sanctuary is denied and where material support is eliminated. It is an extensive program and we are in good discussions.

The second is peace between the Afghan government and those who disagree with us politically. Every individual must be included, but when they declare war they must know that there is no court. You cannot kill our children and expect us to hold flowers. What we arrive at negotiation table will be an enduring peace.

This is a war of positioning, it is not a war of legitimacy. They want to position to seek better advantages. For God's sake, our children's lives, our women's well-being, our future—are they worth positioning? And if it's going to be positioning, we will deny your position, because we are seeking peace as a principle, not as a tactic; it's an enduring thing and it needs to be matched.

Our security layer, our approach to security is layered: First, we have 32,000 special forces that are among the very best in the world. So if people think that Kabul is going to collapse or our major cities are going to collapse or the state structure is collapsed, Minister Lumi and his colleagues have news for you: no, this is not possible. We have enduring sacrifices but we're fighting.

Second, with six Army Corps commands now matched with six zones of the police under the National Police and finally local forces, there will be some movement back and forth, but what I like to seek your focus is the big picture.

And then ask General Campbell where the resources of the armed opposition are matched or not. Yes, we do need more air support; I've been very clear about that, but this is a war where we can be confident of no collapse.

We consolidate our armed forces if they take the initiative and simultaneously are fighting some surprises. So far, keep our fingers crossed.

I like this moment to express again gratitude for RSM and for the stability and flexibility of all of you regarding 2015. We had lost eight months during 2014 where crucial decisions regarding transition could not be made because His Excellency President Karzai made clear that he would not sign the bilateral security agreement and the status of forces agreement that were essential to planning.

We have made up for those eight months but it's taken immense effort and General Campbell and his team really need to be congratulated for the immense work that they've done with us.

But I like to particularly thank the leadership of our armed forces. I'm pleased to announce that Minister stunning say will be our next Minister of Defense, so we will have the defense team in place with a new chief of Army staff and a first vice minister of the Ministry of Defense.