Preparing for a Syrian Transition: Lessons from the Past, Thinking for the Future
This policy analysis published in October 2012, applies the "State Effectiveness" framework to the Syrian conflict. At a time when the international community was focused primarily on the immediate fall of the regime, this paper argued for a proactive focus on institutional continuity to prevent the total collapse of the Syrian state.
Core Objectives
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Preventing Institutional Collapse: Drawing on lessons from Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011), it warns against "De-Ba'athification" style policies that dismantle the civil service and security apparatus, which leads to long-term chaos.
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The Transition Compact: Proposing a framework where the opposition and the international community agree on a roadmap for governance before the transition occurs, ensuring a "day after" plan is in place.
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Economic Stabilization: Emphasizing the need for a "Market-Building" strategy to stabilize the Syrian Pound and ensure the flow of basic commodities (bread, fuel, water) to maintain social order.
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Inclusive Citizenship: Stressing that a post-transition Syria must be built on a legal framework of citizenship that protects all ethnic and religious minorities (Alawites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians) to avoid sectarian fragmentation.